- AMD expects approximately $17 billion in fourth quarter 2026 revenue, potentially surpassing Intel’s forecast of $15 billion to $16 billion.
- AMD’s data center revenue nearly doubled to $8.5 billion in Q3, driven by demand for Instinct accelerators and Epyc processors.
- Intel still controls approximately 65.9% of the x86 CPU market, meaning AMD’s revenue lead does not represent a victory in processor shipments.
- AI infrastructure is becoming AMD’s biggest growth engine, but production constraints, rising inventory and dependence on major customers remain challenges.
AMD vs Intel is entering a new chapter as surging demand for artificial intelligence hardware puts AMD on course to generate more quarterly revenue than its long time rival for the first time in their history.
AMD has forecast fourth quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $17 billion, with a possible variation of 3%. If the company meets that target, it could move ahead of Intel in quarterly revenue, marking a significant milestone in the decades long rivalry between the two chipmakers.
The latest forecast follows an impressive third quarter for AMD, with revenue climbing 45% year over year to a record $13.4 billion. Intel, meanwhile, has projected revenue between $15 billion and $16 billion for its corresponding quarter.
Much of AMD’s growth is coming from its expanding data center business, where demand for AI accelerators and server processors continues to increase. Its Instinct GPUs and Helios rack systems are becoming increasingly important revenue drivers, helping the company benefit from the growing investment in AI infrastructure.
However, the potential revenue crossover does not mean AMD has defeated Intel in the traditional processor market. Intel still ships a larger share of x86 CPUs, while AMD’s growing AI accelerator business is changing the financial comparison between the two companies.
AMD’s data center business drives its revenue surge
The biggest contributor to AMD’s recent growth is its data center division.
The company reported data center revenue of $8.5 billion in the third quarter of 2026, representing an impressive 97% increase compared with the same period last year.
The division accounted for approximately 64% of AMD’s total revenue, compared with 47% a year earlier.
This highlights just how much the company’s business is changing as demand for AI computing infrastructure increases.
AMD is benefiting from sales of its Instinct MI455X accelerators and Helios rack systems, which have started generating revenue. CEO Lisa Su confirmed that the third quarter marked the first time these products shipped for revenue.
Major technology companies, including Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle, are among the customers bringing their first systems online.
These developments are important because modern AI workloads require enormous computing resources. Companies building and operating advanced AI models need powerful accelerators, server processors and complete rack systems to support their infrastructure.
AMD is positioning itself to supply more of that hardware.
The company has also started revenue shipments of its 2nm Epyc Venice processors. However, the complete Venice product lineup is not expected to become available until 2027, suggesting that AMD could have additional growth opportunities ahead.
Its data center operating margin also improved to 34%, indicating that the division is becoming increasingly important not only for revenue but also for profitability.
AMD could generate more revenue than Intel in Q4 2026
AMD’s latest financial outlook suggests that the company could achieve a milestone that once seemed unlikely.
The company expects fourth quarter revenue of approximately $17 billion, plus or minus 3%.
Intel, by comparison, has forecast revenue between $15 billion and $16 billion.
Using the midpoint of both companies’ projections, AMD could generate approximately $1.5 billion more revenue than Intel during the quarter.
This would represent the first time AMD has moved ahead of Intel in overall quarterly revenue.
However, there are some important details behind these numbers.
AMD’s growth is not coming exclusively from traditional processors. Its financial results include AI accelerators, data center systems, embedded products and gaming related hardware.
Intel’s business has a different revenue mix, making a direct comparison more complicated.
AMD’s CFO Jean Hu also expects data center revenue to increase by approximately 50% sequentially in the fourth quarter.
According to estimates cited by Tom’s Hardware, that could put the division’s revenue at around $12.8 billion.
Interestingly, Hu indicated that AMD’s data center AI business, including Instinct GPUs and rack systems, is expected to outsell its Epyc server CPU business for the first time.
This would demonstrate how strongly AI accelerators are influencing the company’s financial performance.
Intel still leads in CPU shipments despite AMD’s growth
AMD potentially overtaking Intel in revenue does not mean the traditional processor battle is over.
Intel continues to hold a substantial advantage in the x86 CPU market.
According to Mercury Research figures cited in the report, Intel held approximately 65.9% of the x86 processor market in the second quarter of 2026.
AMD’s revenue advantage is therefore being driven largely by its growing presence in AI infrastructure rather than a complete takeover of the conventional CPU market.
Intel’s own financial performance also shows that the company is still growing.
Its third quarter revenue increased 21% year over year, while its Data Center and AI division recorded growth of 78%, reaching approximately $7.3 billion.
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan has said that the company’s immediate priority is increasing production capacity to meet demand for its Xeon processors.
Production constraints have become an important challenge for the company.
An explosion at Intel’s Fab 28 facility in Kiryat Gat, Israel, on October 14 also affected production. According to Intel’s CFO Dave Zinsner, the incident is expected to reduce revenue by approximately $300 million.
Even after accounting for that impact, Intel’s projected revenue remains below AMD’s expected fourth quarter figure.
The company is also preparing its next generation of data center accelerators, including its GPU D-series, previously known by the codename Crescent Island.
That could give Intel another opportunity to compete in the rapidly expanding AI hardware market.
AI demand creates opportunities and risks for AMD
Although AMD’s growth is impressive, the company still faces several challenges.
Lisa Su has acknowledged that demand for AMD’s products is currently higher than the available supply.
This means the company cannot manufacture everything customers want to purchase, making production capacity an important factor in its future growth.
AMD is planning to increase chip supply in 2027, with much of that additional capacity directed towards AI products rather than consumer hardware.
The company also expects data center products to account for more than 80% of its total revenue in 2027. It is targeting a doubling of server CPU revenue as demand for enterprise computing continues to increase.
However, rapid expansion comes with financial considerations.
AMD’s inventory increased by approximately $3 billion to $11.5 billion, while free cash flow stood at $554 million in the third quarter.
The company also recorded a $1.1 billion non cash charge associated with customer warrants linked to its major AI agreements.
Another consideration is its dependence on a relatively small group of major AI companies and hyperscale customers.
If these companies reduce infrastructure spending or delay planned projects, AMD could face pressure on its future growth.
Its ability to expand production, maintain customer demand and deliver new products on schedule will therefore be important.
The bigger picture is that the semiconductor industry is undergoing a significant change. AI accelerators and complete data center systems are becoming major sources of revenue, shifting attention away from the traditional CPU market.
AMD’s potential revenue lead over Intel reflects this change.
If the fourth quarter projections prove accurate, AMD will achieve an important financial milestone. But the more significant development is how quickly AI infrastructure has transformed the company’s business and reshaped its competition with Intel.
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