- eSIM devices are forecast to reach 1.5 billion globally in 2026
- IoT sectors like logistics and smart infrastructure are driving most new connections
- Push-based provisioning is becoming essential for large scale deployments
- iSIM adoption is accelerating, especially in low power and compact devices
The eSIM market is approaching a defining moment. New forecasts suggest adoption will surge sharply in 2026, pushing the technology beyond its smartphone roots and into large scale industrial and infrastructure deployments.
The numbers look impressive on paper, but they also raise an uncomfortable question for network operators and platform providers. Are they actually ready for what comes next, especially as the Internet of Things becomes the real growth engine?
According to fresh analysis from Juniper Research, the total number of eSIM enabled devices worldwide is expected to reach 1.5 billion in 2026, up from 1.2 billion in 2025. That represents growth of around 30 percent in a single year.
However, this expansion is not being driven by consumer phones or mobile contracts. Instead, it is enterprise IoT that is setting the pace.
IoT takes the lead as smartphones fade into the background
Connected logistics, oil and gas operations, and smart street lighting are expected to be the three biggest contributors to new eSIM connections next year. Together, these sectors are forecast to add around 75 million new connections to global mobile networks in 2026 alone.
The reason is simple. IoT deployments increasingly demand connectivity at scale, often across borders and over long device lifespans. Physical SIM cards are expensive to manage in these environments, particularly when devices are sealed, remote, or deployed in their tens or hundreds of thousands.
eSIMs remove much of that friction, making them an obvious choice for enterprises rolling out connected infrastructure.
A major catalyst for this shift is the GSMA’s SGP.32 specification, introduced in 2025. Developed by GSMA, the standard was designed specifically for IoT use cases.
It allows network profiles to be provisioned centrally from servers, rather than downloaded one device at a time. In practice, this enables bulk activation and management at a scale that was previously difficult or impossible.
Push provisioning creates new pressure on eSIM platforms
While SGP.32 unlocks powerful new capabilities, it also exposes weaknesses in the existing eSIM ecosystem. Historically, eSIM provisioning has relied on a pull model, where individual devices request and download their own profiles.
That approach works well for consumer devices, but it breaks down when enterprises need to activate thousands of units simultaneously.
Juniper warns that this transition to a push based provisioning model could become the biggest bottleneck for the industry. Without robust server driven tools, eSIM platforms risk slowing deployments rather than enabling them.
Senior Research Analyst Ardit Ballhysa argues that enterprise customers simply cannot afford the inefficiencies of the old model.
Managing IoT fleets at scale demands automation, resilience, and tight integration with existing systems. Providers that fail to evolve their platforms may find themselves unable to meet enterprise expectations just as demand accelerates.
In other words, the technology is ready, but the operational layer still needs to catch up.
iSIM quietly emerges as the next phase of connectivity
Alongside the growth in eSIMs, interest is also building around iSIM technology. Unlike eSIMs, iSIMs are integrated directly into a device’s main chipset, removing the need for a separate SIM component altogether.
This reduces cost, power consumption, and physical footprint, making iSIMs particularly attractive for compact and low power devices.
Juniper previously predicted explosive growth in this area, with iSIM connections rising from around 800,000 in 2024 to 10 million in 2026. That represents growth of more than 1,000 percent in just two years. By 2028, total iSIM connections are expected to reach 210 million.
This momentum is being driven by new GSMA specifications that aim to standardize iSIM deployment and reduce complexity for manufacturers.
Early use cases include smart energy meters, remote monitoring tools, and small form factor logistics devices where efficiency and longevity matter more than raw performance.
Analyst Elisha Sudlow Poole notes that flexibility will be critical. Vendors will need platforms that can adapt to multiple form factors and evolving standards, rather than locking customers into rigid ecosystems.
Consumer demand still matters, but enterprise sets the pace
Outside enterprise deployments, consumer use of eSIMs continues to grow steadily, particularly in travel. Research from CCS Insight suggests that around a quarter of UK consumers have already used an eSIM to access local data rates while abroad.
Cost pressures and frustration with rising mobile tariffs are also pushing more users toward SIM only plans and longer device upgrade cycles.
For now, consumer eSIMs largely retain the familiar pull provisioning model, and networks are generally comfortable supporting them. The real challenge lies in scaling up for enterprise and IoT use cases, where volume, reliability, and automation are non negotiable.
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