- eSIM-enabled smartphones expected to rise from 1.3 billion today to more than 3 billion by 2030
- Travel eSIM usage forecasted to quadruple, hitting 280 million by the end of the decade
- Global roaming revenues under threat as providers like Airalo and Holafly win over international travelers
- Analysts warn traditional mobile operators must adapt or risk losing relevance
The eSIM revolution is gathering pace, with new research predicting massive growth that could reshape the global mobile industry over the next five years.
According to a fresh report from analyst firm CCS Insight, more than 1.3 billion people already own smartphones capable of supporting eSIMs. That number is set to more than double, topping 3 billion by 2030. The surge is being fueled by international travel, where eSIMs are fast becoming the go-to alternative to costly roaming plans.
Travel eSIMs, digital SIM cards that let users connect to local networks abroad without swapping physical cards, are projected to jump from 70 million in use this year to 280 million by the end of the decade. Market revenues could surge past $4.4 billion as travelers increasingly opt for cheaper, more flexible options over traditional roaming charges.
Specialist providers such as Airalo and Holafly are leading the charge. Airalo, for instance, announced earlier this year that it had surpassed 20 million customers, doubling its user base in under a year. Airlines and travel companies are also entering the fray, further squeezing mobile operators who have long relied on roaming fees as a key source of income.
“Travel eSIMs are turning the traditional roaming market on its head,” said Kester Mann, director of consumer and connectivity at CCS Insight. “The influx of new players, a sharp fall in prices, and the move toward remote provisioning are changing the way people think about getting connected when they go away.”
So far, only a handful of global operators, including Vodafone and Orange, have introduced their own competitive eSIM offerings. Analysts warn that carriers will need to move quickly, balancing defensive strategies with opportunities to expand into new markets and develop fresh services, or risk losing out to more nimble challengers.
Regional trends highlight the momentum. North America currently leads adoption, with nearly 20% of international trips already using travel eSIMs. That figure is expected to climb to 41% by 2030, aided by the widespread adoption of eSIM-only devices such as Apple’s iPhones, which dropped physical SIM slots back in 2022.
As eSIM technology matures and becomes mainstream across Europe and Asia, analysts expect competition to intensify. What is now a disruptive market could soon become commoditized, leading to consolidation among providers and fewer opportunities for newcomers.
For global mobile operators, the decline in roaming fees is an undeniable threat. But experts also frame it as a chance for reinvention, a push to rethink business models and explore new ways of keeping customers connected in an increasingly borderless digital world.
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